28–31 August 2026
Weekly team selection
Highest team win probability inside Bet365 odds 1.91–3.00. Edge and expected return do not affect the ranking.
- Slate
- Friday 18:00 to Monday 23:59 BST
- Common cutoff
- Friday 12:00 BST
- Final check
- T-60 confirmation or veto only
Checks for the newest reviewed website data. It does not contact API-Football directly or bypass the model's freshness checks.
0/45 prices pass the 30-minute gate. Next capture: 28 Aug 2026, 11:35 BST.
Oldham Athletic to beat Swindon Town
League Two · Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 BST
- Captured Bet365
- 2.00
- Rank in band
- 1 of 28
- Lead over second
- 0.60 pts
- One-book omissions
- 11/11 still rank 1
- Full 1X2
- 48.36 / 26.99 / 24.65
- Probability source
- Market consensus
- Value
- Not assessed
The percentage and rank come from the market-consensus model. Form, xG, shots and head-to-head below are dated context and did not generate the 48.36%.
Why this team ranks first
Oldham Athleticranks first because it has the highest market-consensus win probability among teams whose captured Bet365 price is 1.91–3.00. Historical data is mixed: its relevant-venue form and the opponent's shot profile support the lean, while overall form, xG and head-to-head do not.
| Factor | Oldham Athletic | Swindon Town | What it says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market win probability | 48.36% | 24.65% | Supports Oldham Athletic: a 23.71-point gap; draw 26.99%. |
| Relevant venue form · last 5 | 3-1-1 · 2.00 PPG · 9-3 goals | 2-1-2 · 1.40 PPG · 4-8 goals | Supports Oldham Athletic: better points rate and a +6 versus -4 goal difference. |
| Relevant venue shots · per match | 11.8 for / 10.0 against | 7.6 for / 18.6 against | Supports Oldham Athletic: the opponent's recent venue shot differential was -11.0 per match. |
| Relevant venue shots on target | 4.4 for / 3.2 against | 2.4 for / 6.4 against | Supports Oldham Athletic: 4.4 on target for versus 2.4 for the opponent. |
| Relevant venue xG · per match | 0.96 for / 1.74 against · 3 matches | 0.47 for / 1.61 against · 5 matches | Mixed: both xG differentials were negative and Oldham Athletic's sample contains only 3 matches. |
| Overall form · last 5 | 1-0-4 · 0.60 PPG · 8-9 goals | 1-1-3 · 0.80 PPG · 5-12 goals | Caution: Oldham Athletic's overall record and points rate were weaker. |
| Last archived league match | W 3-0 v Accrington · xG 1.34-0.71 | L 1-2 v Chesterfield · xG 2.30-1.60 | Mixed: Oldham Athletic had the better result, while one match should not dominate the decision. |
| Head-to-head · last 5 | 0-0-5 · goals 2-11 | 5-0-0 · goals 11-2 | Caution: all five went against Oldham Athletic. This is low-weight historical context, not a model input. |
Historical rows use league matches through 24 May 2026. They are context only and are not proof that a team is “due” to win.
How strongly the bookmakers agree
| Check | Result | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Individual bookmaker probabilities | 44.70–51.95% | Wide range; standard deviation 2.00 points. |
| Consensus after removing one book | 47.96–48.76% | The average is less sensitive than any one bookmaker. |
| Rank-one stability | 11 of 11 | Oldham stayed first when each bookmaker was omitted globally. |
| Closest omission scenario | 0.35-point lead | 47.96% versus Salford City 47.61% after omitting Betfair. |
This tests sensitivity within the same stale quote snapshot. It is not independent model evidence, a current price check or proof of betting value.
Why this is not confirmed
- The captured Bet365 quote was 39.2 hours old when received; the gate is 30 minutes.
- The common Friday 12:00 snapshot and complete-slate refresh have not been received.
- Bet365 availability is not confirmed in an executable account.
- Current 2026/27 results and lineups are absent; the historical context ends in May 2026.
- No referee was supplied for this fixture.
Same rule
Next candidates
| Rank | Team | Fixture | League | Kickoff | Win % | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oldham Athletic | Oldham Athletic v Swindon Town | League Two | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 BST | 48.36% | 2.00 |
| 2 | Salford City | Shrewsbury v Salford City | League Two | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 BST | 47.76% | 2.10 |
| 3 | AFC Bournemouth | AFC Bournemouth v Everton | Premier League | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 BST | 46.71% | 2.00 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | Crawley Town v Bristol Rovers | League Two | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 BST | 44.90% | 2.05 |
| 5 | Bristol City | Bristol City v Portsmouth | Championship | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 BST | 44.04% | 2.10 |
The range is inclusive. Only the higher-probability team from each fixture can enter. The price floor is an eligibility rule, not a minimum value price.
Model and data status
| Active probability | De-vigged market consensus; saved v0.5 model correction 0.00 points |
|---|---|
| Shots challenger | Not promoted — retrospective gain is tiny and weekly uncertainty crosses zero; candidate log-loss gain 0.000329. |
| Historical candidate calibration | 7,018 in-band team outcomes: mean 39.964%, observed 40.083%. |
| Historical weekend rule | 82 wins from 169 selections. Mean forecast 49.342%; observed 48.521% (90% week bootstrap 42.012–55.030%). |
| Price concentration | 125 of 169 historical selections were priced 1.91–1.95; average early-market proxy price 1.951. |
| Return diagnostic | Displayed early-price proxy ROI -5.408%; longest losing run 8. This is not a Bet365, timestamped or profitability result. Retrospective early-market proxy; all seasons already inspected. |
| Quote receipt | 2026-08-26 17:40:34.541 UTC · source quote age 39.2 hours |
| Value price | Not set. The 1.91 floor is not a value claim. |
| Website data | Reviewed static snapshot; it does not read the D: evidence store live. |
Retrospective diagnostic
How the weekly rule calibrated in different groups
| Group | Slice | N | Mean forecast | Observed wins | 90% observed interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | Premier League | 47 | 49.15% | 53.19% | 41.37–64.66% |
| League | Championship | 37 | 49.93% | 40.54% | 28.35–54.02% |
| League | League One | 44 | 49.46% | 54.55% | 42.30–66.27% |
| League | League Two | 41 | 48.91% | 43.90% | 31.93–56.63% |
| Forecast | Below 45% | 6 | 41.88% | 50.00% | Suppressed · n < 30 |
| Forecast | 45% to below 50% | 97 | 49.14% | 50.52% | 42.27–58.74% |
| Forecast | 50% or more | 66 | 50.31% | 45.45% | 35.75–55.52% |
| Side | Home team | 122 | 49.41% | 49.18% | 41.83–56.56% |
| Side | Away team | 47 | 49.17% | 46.81% | 35.34–58.63% |
| Lead over second | Below 0.5 points | 73 | 49.47% | 52.05% | 42.54–61.43% |
| Lead over second | 0.5 to below 1 point | 35 | 49.48% | 60.00% | 46.14–72.42% |
| Lead over second | 1 to below 2.5 points | 46 | 49.37% | 32.61% | 22.48–44.67% |
| Lead over second | 2.5 points or more | 15 | 48.31% | 53.33% | Suppressed · n < 30 |
Fixed descriptive slices from already-inspected seasons. Intervals are Wilson intervals for the observed win rate, not proof that one league, side or probability band should change the selection rule.