Player cards
Card predictions
The historical player-card model is built, but there are no current selections. Matchday lineups, appearance probabilities and exact player-card prices are still required.
- History
- 4 seasons
- Test appearances
- 44,503
- Current probabilities
- 0
- Current picks
- 0
Current requirements
What is still missing
| Input | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Starting lineups | Pending | Separates starters from substitutes shortly before kickoff. |
| Chance of appearing | Pending | A substitute needs P(appears) × P(card | appears). |
| Player-card prices | Pending | Required to compare probability with an exact bookmaker offer and settlement rule. |
| Minimum acceptable price | Not set | No value or betting decision can be made without it. |
Historical model
Data already included
- Player discipline
- Previous cards, fouls, tackles and recent appearances.
- Player identity
- Stable provider IDs follow players between clubs; names do not merge identities.
- Transfers
- Previous club spells and exact-ID official transfer corroboration.
- Context tested
- Team, opponent, head-to-head and referee variants were tested but not selected.
- Selected result
- 2025/26 out-of-fold log loss 0.3658 and Brier score 0.1070.
- Evidence status
- Retrospective and conditional on appearance; not proof of betting profitability.
Previous research
25 August cup card-total screen
- 1Stevenage v ReadingOver 2.5 total cards research rank
- 2Southampton v West Ham UnitedOver 2.5 total cards research rank
- 3Ipswich Town v Leicester CityOver 2.5 total cards research rank
- 4Blackpool v Lincoln CityOver 2.5 total cards research rank
- 5Plymouth Argyle v Coventry CityOver 2.5 total cards research rank
This was a descriptive ranking, not a calibrated probability. Bookmaker settlement rules were not matched and no minimum price was set.